Jeremy Robson, the former head of principal finance at Royal Bank of Scotland, believes hotel values will fall between 20% and 25%. He thinks we are just a third of the way into the credit crunch.
In deals he is active in involving other commercial real estate, prices of £500m have now come down to £400m, he said at Henry Stewart's hotel valuation conference this week.
At the same event, held in the Marriott Marble Arch in London, Simon Hudspeth of Christie Consulting, said there was currently a flight to quality.
The challenges of securing finance were highlighted by David Kohler, a property developer currently trying to build a Hilton Garden Inn at Luton airport. "Until last Friday, I had financing," he told delegates.
While there are expectations that values have to fall, many sellers continue to believe that strong trading will enable prices to remain robust.
Colliers Robert Barry highlighted this situation with its annual Hotel Market Review, stating that "hotel values are driven by trading performance which remains healthy".
The report showed that the average sale price per bedroom was flat in 2007 compared with 2006 at £66,500, as was the average sale price as a multiplier of turnover at 2.8 times. There was a slight increase in the average sale price as a multiplier of profit which was up from 11.4 to 11.8 since the previous year's report.